چکیده:
In the present study, the effects of government financial variables’ shock on private sector consumption expenditures during the seasonal sequence of 1370-1395 is evaluated. To this aim, the framework proposed by Tagkalakis (2008) and Hristov (2013) is used while some adjustments are made due to the dependence of the Iranian economy on oil revenues. The results show that tax revenue shocks on private sector consumption expenditures in business cycles is not significant and current government expenditures during economic boom and recession periods and construction expenditures during recession periods have a positive and significant effect on the growth of private sector expenditures. Moreover, the effects of current expenditure shocks on private consumption growth are higher during boom and recession periods and also the impact of current spending shocks is greater than government construction expenditures on private sector expenditure growth during the recession.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Therefore, given the importance of this issue, the present article has investigated the effects of shocks to government fiscal variables on the growth of private sector consumption expenditures during business cycles in the period 1370-1395 with quarterly frequency in the Iranian economy.
In other words, this research seeks to answer these questions: Have shocks to government fiscal variables had the same effects on the growth of private sector consumption expenditures during periods of economic boom and recession?
Third, for 4 Counter-Cyclical 5 Tagkalakis 6 Hristov 7 Vector Error Correction Model with Exogenous Variables 8 Samadi and Oujimehr, in a study titled "The Nature of Fiscal Policy in Iran," included the oil price shock only in the final calculations and without considering economic boom and recession periods, to distinguish their work from Tagkalakis.
26 Höppner 27 Ramey and Shapiro government and Gross Domestic Product, and then by dividing the studied time period into good and bad periods using government fiscal deficits, considered the residuals obtained from each of the aforementioned variables as the corresponding shocks in the specified model for private sector consumption.
n n n n ~1anticipated t i t i t i t i (39) i i i ii 4-4- Empirical Estimation of the Model As mentioned in the previous sections, in this study, to evaluate the shocks of government fiscal variables on the growth of private sector consumption expenditures during periods of economic recession and boom, the model specified by Tagalakis (2008) has been used, which has been adjusted considering the dependence of the Iranian economy on oil revenues.
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