Abstract:
According to the theory of macroeconomics, achieving a
stable equilibrium in economy is possible when the exchange
rate regimes are consistent with the financial and monetary
policies. Besides, regulating the real rate of exchange and its
relation to a known exchange rate regime, which corresponds
to economic conditions, is very important to create the
equilibrium. This study tries to forecast an exchange rate
which can guarantee the growth of non-oil exports, by
emphasising on making the exchange rate regime consistent
will, the exchange rate on one hand and making financial and
monetary policies harmoneous with devafuation of Rial on
the other hand. To this end, we have emploved a VAR model
to determine an appropriate exchange rate to forecast the
behavior of the exchange rate and other related variables over
the 1996-2000 (1375-79) period. In this framework, a model is
considered which can simultaneously specify the effects of
financial policies, liquidity growth, inflation, and devaluation
of Rial on non-oil exports within a five-year period. For this
purpose, a model including 5 endogenous variables and 4
exogenous variables is considered.
Machine summary:
This study tries to forecast an exchange rate which can guarantee the growth of non-oil exports, by emphasising on making the exchange rate regime consistent wit], the exchange rate on one hand and making financial and monetary policies harrnoneous with devaluation of Rial on the other hand.
In this framework, a model is considered which can simultaneously specify the effects of financial policies, liquidity growth, inflation, and devaluation of Rial on non-oil exports within a five-year period.
In this part, we consider a VAR model with five endogenous and four exogenous variables, which can simultaneously show the effects of financial policies, liquidity growth, inflation, and devaluation of Rial on non-oil exports over a five-year period.
In this paper, we will study the relation between the exchange rate regime, macroeconomic policies, and the real exchange rate as well as determining the exchange rate, which can guaratee the growth on non-oil exports in the current conditions of Iran.
Hence, in the first part of the theoretical basis, we will hrietly review the international monetary system, and in the second and third parts we will respectively discuss the factors causing inapnropriatc regulation of exchange rate in the economy and the policies which appropriately regulate the exchange rate to effect the growth of non-oil exports.
In 1978, the International Monetary Fund revised its own monetary policy, officially accepted the managed floating exchange rate regime and recommended it to its members, as a result of which during the past years, this regime was used by some developing countries which has not been consistent with their economic structures.