Abstract:
This paper estimates the effects of increase in Iran’s non-oil exports on its economic growth as well as sectoral outputs, using a single country, comparative static, exogenous policy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The paper also investigates the share of tradable sectors in reaching to the targeted growth rate (8%) in 5th socio-economic development plan. For this purpose, the parameters of the model are calibrated based on Iran’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which carries a snapshot of the Iran’s economy. The model is then used to simulate the impact of increasing the exports uniformly across all sectors by 10, 20, and 30 percent on endogenous variables, including sectoral outputs, and GDP. Results suggest that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate would be achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in exports. Our founding also indicates that industry and mine sector in Iran, would have more influence on growth than other non-oil sectors.
Machine summary:
Studying the Effects of Non-Oil Exports on Targeted Economic Growth in Iranian 5th Development Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach Somayeh Jafari* Department of Economics Allameh Tabatabai University Somayehj99@gmail.
nz This paper estimates the effects of an increase in Iran’s non-oil exports on its economic growth as well as sectoral outputs, using a single country, comparative static, exogenous policy ComputableGeneral Equilibrium (CGE) model.
Computable General Equilibrium, Social Accounting Matrix, Exports, Economic Growth, Iran’s Economy JEL Classification: F10, D58, C68, O40.
Introduction According to general policies of Iranian 5th Socio-Economic Development Plan (2010-15), it is targeted that Iran's economy should experience a rapid annual economic growth rate equal to 8%.
To date, most models for the analysis of the impact of increase in exports on economic growth in Iran have been partial equilibrium and econometric-based.
Haddad and Perobelli (2005) have used computable general equilibrium approach to investigate the effects of exports on economic growth for Brazil.
He study the model under different scenario policies, such as tariffs, tariff unification, exchange rates unification, foreign market access, income transfers because of removing subsidies to households and 20% increase in oil prices.
The results generally show a direct relation of long-run impact of an increase in exports on GDP growth, and the endogenous variables representing output of each economic sector.
Results show that there is a positive and significant impact of an increase in exports on different output sectors as well as economic growth.