Abstract:
Whether the United Kingdom (UK) should remain in the European Union (EU) or not has been a fiercely debated issue both before and after the referendum in the UK on June 23, 2016.
The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the pros and cons of the UK leaving the EU. It is concluded that if the UK leaves the EU, the resulting economic shock would risk adverse effects on macroeconomic variables such as foreign trade, high inflation, employment level, interest rate, aggregate supply and aggregate demand, trade creation and diversion, balance of payments, balance of trade, term of trade, depreciation of the pound sterling, rising consumer price index (CPI) and reduction in the standards of living in the UK. Effects of leaving the EU on money market, labour market and goods market in the UK have also been explored to show the effects on the exchange rate, the interest rate, nominal and real wages and output level in the UK. It has therefore been concluded that it is not in the best interest of the UK to leave the EU. Benefits of remaining in the EU far outweigh the disadvantages.
Machine summary:
It is concluded that if the UK leaves the EU, the resulting economic shock would risk adverse effects on macroeconomic variables such as foreign trade, high inflation, employment level, interest rate, aggregate supply and aggregate demand, trade creation and diversion, balance of payments, balance of trade, term of trade, depreciation of the pound sterling, rising consumer price index (CPI) and reduction in the standards of living in the UK.
Figure 9: EU Foreign Direct Investment {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} 74/ An Analysis of Economic Implications of the UK Leaving the EU Figure 9 depicts a sharp rising trend by 35.
Being a member of the EU enables the UK’s exporters to sell their product cheaper and more easily to the Single Market; more exports means more jobs for British workers and more foreign earnings which in turns increases capacity to import from the EU countries.
More exports means increased demand for the pound sterling which will increase the exchange rate (appreciation) of the currency against its trading partners’ currencies in the EU member countries.
It is easier and cheaper for the UK’s exporters to sell their products to the other 27 EU 76/ An Analysis of Economic Implications of the UK Leaving the EU member countries.
After leaving the EU, there would be reduction in UK’s exports which in turn will decreases the demand of pound sterling by other countries, consequently, depreciation of the currency will take place (Figure 3), lower profits and fewer jobs.