تعیین‌کننده‌‌های زمینه‌ای و ساختاری تمایل به مهاجرت از کشور در بین جوانان: مطالعه‌ای در شهر بوشهر Journal Article

نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران پاییز و زمستان 1402- شماره 36 Ranking: ب/ISC (‎31 page(s) - From 274 to 304 )

Keywords: Param> تمایل به مهاجرت بین‌المللی تعیین‌کننده‌های ساختاری- زمینه‌ای مدل نظری تمایل توانایی < توانایی نسل جوان Aspiration Environmental variables youth migration International migration tendency Contextual-structural factors ability model مهاجرت جوانان تمایل به مهاجرت جمعیت خانواده متغیرهای درآمد اقتصادی زنان سنی

fa en

Abstract:

Abstract This study aims to evaluate the tendency for international migration among individuals aged 15-29 and to examine the impact of structural and contextual factors on this inclination. Utilizing a structured questionnaire, the research surveyed a sample of 378 from a statistical population of 20,656 residents in Bushehr aged 15-29. The findings indicate that individuals who are married, male, and belong to large families exhibit a stronger migration tendency than their counterparts. Results of regression analysis show that 66 percent of the youth's migration propensity is attributable to structural and contextual factors. According to Carling's aspiration/ability model, environment variables such as inequality, hope for the future, and life satisfaction, while the remaining 16% can be explained by other contextual factors and individual characteristics. Overall, structural and environmental factors significantly influence the youth's inclination towards international migration. IntroductionWhile internal migration has traditionally attracted more scholarly attention in Iran, international migration has become increasingly contentious with complex implications in recent years. Iran has witnessed a demographic shift towards a younger population, which, coupled with economic and social challenges, has heightened the importance of understanding this phenomenon. Recent studies have focused on various aspects of international migration, particularly among the youth population. Several studies have examined the influence of social, cultural, and political factors on the desire to emigrate from Iran (Ebrahimi, 2002; Javaheri & Serajzadeh, 2005; Moqaddas & Sharafy, 2009). Other studies have focused on globalization and cosmopolitan values (Zokaei, 2006), a sense of national identity and the significance of family and reference groups (Movahed & Niazi, 2008), the identity and role of the family and reference groups (Khajenouri & Shams, 2006), discrimination, economic and welfare conditions (Alaeddini et al., 2005), and the role of social networks (Sadeghi & Seyyed Hosseini, 2018). This study investigates the attitudes of 15–29-year-olds in Bushehr, an industrial city in south of Iran, towards emigration and identifies key factors influencing these attitudes. Considering Bushehr's favorable employment conditions due to the oil and gas industries, this research examines whether economic factors predominantly drive the youth's migration propensity or if other elements are also influential. Methods and DataThis study adopts a descriptive-analytical method, using a structured questionnaire for data collection. The statistical population includes 20,656 individuals aged 15-29 residing in Bushehr for at least five years. A sample size of 378 was determined using Cochran’s formula. Cluster sampling was used initially, followed by simple random sampling for final selection. The questionnaire covered demographic questions and concepts such as migration desire, inequality, belonging, familial relationships, and life satisfaction, based on the study's theoretical and empirical framework. The instrument's validity and reliability were confirmed through prior research and Cronbach’s alpha. FindingsThe findings indicate that individuals who are married, male, and belong to large families have a higher tendency for migration compared to the general population. Structural and contextual factors account for 66 percent of the migration propensity among the youth, as shown by regression analysis. Carling's aspiration/ability model suggests that environmental variables—such as inequality, future prospects, and life satisfaction—explain about 50 percent of the variance in the dependent variable. The remaining 16 percent is attributed to other contextual factors and individual characteristics at the micro level. In sum, structural and environmental elements play a crucial role in shaping the youth's migration tendencies. Conclusion and DiscussionThe theoretical framework by Carling (2002) and Carling & Schewel (2018) suggests that migration desires arise from both macroscopic and individual levels. In this study, macro-level environmental variables—such as inequality, hope for the future, and life satisfaction—have a more pronounced and effective role than micro-level variables like family and education. When considering both macro and micro variables, the model can more accurately and comprehensively analyze the tendency towards international migration than other theoretical models. The results, based on socioeconomic and demographic factors, allow for a more precise model of youth migration by expanding these factors into broader formats and structures. While this study highlights the prominence of structural factors, other researches indicate that the influence of these variables can vary regionally. To better understand the younger generation's migration inclination, it is advisable to compare at least two regions or provinces with different economic, social, demographic, and infrastructural conditions in future studies. Furthermore, it is recommended that a multi-level study examine the impact of structural and regional factors more thoroughly, incorporating the macro variables.

Machine summary:

برخي از مطالعات بر نقش عوامل اجتماعي ، فرهنگي و سياسي (ابراهيمي ، ١٣٨١؛ جواهري و سراج زاده ، ١٣٨٤؛ مقدس و شرفي ، ١٣٨٨) بر تمايل به مهاجرت از کشور توجه داشته اند و برخي ديگر بر عواملي مانند جهاني شدن و ارزش هاي جهان وطني (ذکايي ، ١٣٨٥)، تعلق به وطن (موحد و نيازي ، ١٣٨٧)، هويت و نقش خانواده و گروه هاي مرجع (خواجه نوري و شمس ، ١٣٨٥)، تبعيض و شرايط اقتصادي و رفاهي (علاءالديني و همکاران ، ١٣٨٤) و نقش شبکه هاي اجتماعي (صادقي و سيدحسيني ، ١٣٩٧) تأکيد داشته اند. اگرچه مهاجرت -بين المللي و يا داخلي - در نظريات و ديدگاه هاي مهاجرت براساس حرکات و عمل انجام شده مورد بررسي و تحليل قرار مي گيرد اما اين نکته نيز حايز اهميت است که فرايندهاي شناختي و آماده سازي پيش از حرکت داراي اهميت زيادي است و بر اين اساس محققان حوزه مهاجرت اين فرايندها را با استفاده از چارچوب ها و ديگاه هاي متنوع مورد تحليل قرار مي دهند ( ,Koikkalainen and Kyle ;٢٠١٨ ,Carling and Schewel ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ 1 Relative Deprivation Theory 2 Stress-threshold Model 3 Value Expectancy Theory ٢٠١٨ ,Willekens ;٢٠١٥ ,van der Valde and Naerssen ;٢٠١٥). استيپ و گابريل ٢( ٢٠٠٨) و کريولو٣ (٢٠١١) مهاجرت را پاسخي فردي ، خانوادگي و اجتماعي به برطرف نمودن شکاف بين خواسته ها و آروزهاي افراد و تسهيلات و امکانات محدود در ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ 1 Migration Environment 2 Easthipe and Gabriel 3 Crivello مبدأ مي دانند و بيان مي کند فقدان تحصيلات و شغل عموما يکي از دلايل اصلي است که جمعيت جوان را براي ترک وطن تشويق مي نمايد.

Download citation file :
(پژوهیار, , , )

Download PDF
Downlaod HTML

Shortlink:

Page: