چکیده:
در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎی ﻣﻌﺮف رﻓﺘﺎر ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻫﺎ ی ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘـﻪ ﺷـﺪه در ﺑـﻮرس اوراقﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان واﺣﺪﻫﺎی ﻓﻌﺎل در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮐﺸﻮر و ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼـﺎدی ﻣـﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﻔﺎف ﻧﻤﻮدن ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻋﻠﯽ )از ﻧﻮع ﮔﺮاﻧﺠﺮی( و ﻣﻌﻨـﯽ دار ﺑـﻮدنرواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎی رﻓﺘﺎری ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی از ﯾﮏ ﺳﻮ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨـﯿﻦﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻫﻤﯿﻦ رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ و رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی از ﺳﻮی دﯾﮕﺮ و ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﮑﺎرﮔﯿﺮی ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ در ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﮕﺬاری ﻫﺎ و ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ رواﺑﻂ در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از آزﻣﻮن ﻋﻠﯿﺖ ﮔﺮاﻧﺠﺮ و ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎی رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺷﺪهاز ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﮐﺎب- داﮔﻼس و ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از داده ﻫﺎی ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑـﻪ 301 ﺷـﺮﮐﺖ ﻓﻌـﺎل در ﺑـﻮرس اوراقﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﺑﺮای ﯾﮏ دوره 01 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ )3831-4731( ﺻﻮرت ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﮐﻠﯿـﻪ ﺷـﺮﮐﺖ ﻫـﺎی ﻣـﻮردﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺒﻞ از ﺳﺎل 2731 در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه و ﺳﺎل ﻣﺎﻟﯽ آﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺘﻬﯽ ﺑـﻪ ﭘﺎﯾـﺎن اﺳﻔﻨﺪ ﻣﺎه ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺮ وﺟﻮد راﺑﻄﻪ ﻋﻠﯽ )ﮔﺮاﻧﺠﺮی( از ﺳﻤﺖ ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ ﻫـﺎی ﻣﻌﺮف رﻓﺘﺎر ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺗﺎﮐﯿﺪ دارﻧﺪ.
This paper examines the relationship between the Indexes peculiar to the trends of companies in Tehran stock enchange. This study itends to spell out the Granger causality relationship and meaningfulness of relationship between trend particulars in term of stock value with economic growth changes in one hand and discovering the same relation among the parameters in terms of investment market promotion and economic growth on the other hand, which ultimately itends to apply the findings to Policies and decisions made with regard to investment Market. Granger causality test and regression analysis using a Cobb-Douglas production function were used to analyze data from 103 active companies in tehran stack exchange in a ten-year period. All these companies have been accepted in Tehran stock exchange in 1993 and had a fiscal year terminating mid-March 1993.The findings has outlined the occurance of meaningful relationship between a company’s fixed assets and the quota of GDP per capita. The findings underscore the importance of the company fiscal resources and its effective role in the economic growth. On account of lack of any meaningful relation between economic growth and other dual trend variables, the ineffectiveness of these trends on economic growth is proved.
خلاصه ماشینی:
6- ﻗﻠﻤﺮو ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ رواﺑﻂ ﻋﻠﯽ )ﮔﺮاﻧﺠﺮی( ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎی رﻓﺘـﺎری ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻫـﺎی ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘـﻪ ﺷـﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار و ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﯽ دار ﺑﻮدن رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺮای دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ اﺑﺘﺪای ﺳﺎل 4731 ﺗﺎ ﭘﺎﯾﺎن ﺳﺎل3831 )01 ﺳﺎل( ﻗﻠﻤﺮو ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﯽ، ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ و زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿـﻖ ﺣﺎﺿـﺮ را ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﻣﯽ دﻫﻨﺪ.
12 3 = PIﺟﻤﻊ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﻮزون ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﻫﺮ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮوش ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ )(P/S e = ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﭘﺴﻤﺎﻧﺪ 0 ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﺑـﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل ﻧﺸﺎن داده ﺷﺪه در راﺑﻄﻪ 42 ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ: )42( )2a21 + b21k0 + b22TI1 + b23TI2 + e 0 @ GDPP = f(k , TI1, TI 0 1 = TIﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﻮزون ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ارزش ﺟﺎری ﺳﻬﺎم ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻞ ارزش ﺑﺎزار 2 = TIﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﻮزون ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﻬﺎم ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ ﮐﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ e = ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﭘﺴﻤﺎﻧﺪ 0 11- ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎری ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎری در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻫﺎی ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ.
3- ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻣﺒﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﯾﮑـﯽ از ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﺒﺘﻨـﯽ ﺑـﺮ ﺗﻮﺳـﻌﻪ ﺑـﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ )ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺳﻬﺎم ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑـﻪ ﻫﺮﯾـﮏ از ﺷـﺮﮐﺖ ﻫـﺎ ﺑـﻪ ﺣﺠـﻢ ﮐـﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان( ﺑﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی، ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮع ﺻﻨﻌﺖ، اﻧﺪازه ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻫﺎ، وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ در ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻫﺎ و ﺣﻀـﻮر ﺳـﻬﺎﻣﺪاران اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ را در اﯾﻦ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ از ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌـﺎت ﺿـﺮوری ﻣـﯽ ﺳـﺎزد.