Abstract:
باور حاکم بر ذینفعانی که ارائه دهنده خدمات گردشگری در مقصد هستند نقش مهمی در پایداری مقاصد دارد. مقادیر متغیرهای تاثیرگذار بر این باورها همیشه مبهم بوده و روابط علّی بین آنها نامطمئن است. اگر بخواهیم واقعیت پویایی موجود در عقاید آنها را نیز در نظر بگیریم، پیچیدگی موضوع افزایش خواهد یافت. برای این منظور از منطق فازی، شبکههای باور بیزی و مدلهای پویایی عقیده استفاده کردیم. که بر روی دادههای مربوط به ذینفعان ایرانی با هدف جذب گردشگران چینی پیادهسازی شده است. داده ها در طی سال های 2019، 2020 و 2021 توسط پرسشننامه جمع آوری شده و مربوط به 540 ذینفع است. درنهایت نه تنها یک شبیه سازی مبتنی بر عامل برای بصریسازی روندها و نحوه تکامل یا هم تکاملی آنها ارائه شده بلکه امکان پیش بینی روندهای معیوب و مطلوب به ترتیب برای جلوگیری یا تقویت آنها مهیا گردیده است.
The belief of the stakeholders who provide tourism services in the destination plays an important role in the sustainability of destinations. The values of variables affecting these beliefs are always ambiguous and the causal relationships between them are uncertain. If we want to consider the reality of the dynamics in their opinions, the complexity of the issue will increase. For this purpose, we used fuzzy logic, Bayesian belief networks and opinion dynamics models. It is implemented on the data of Iranian stakeholders with the aim of attracting Chinese tourists. The data was collected by the questionnaire during the years 2019, 2020 and 2021 and is related to 540 stakeholders. Finally, not only an agent-based simulation is provided to visualize trends and how they evolve or co-evolve, but the possibility of predicting defective and desirable trends is provided to prevent or strengthen them, respectively.IntroductionAlthough the tourism steps seem to be regular, the ambiguity, uncertainty and dynamism in the host community complicate to control of this process. It is ambiguous because different tastes are applied to it (Yixue Liu, Rouran Zhang, Yanbo Yao, 2021). It is uncertain because the stakeholders have different belief(Jose M. Merigo, Anna M. Gil-Lafuente, Onofre Martorell, 2012). It is dynamic (Ruggero Sainaghi, Rodolfo Baggio, 2017) because it is affected by environmental changes such as diseases (Parisa Soltan-Alinejad, Aboozar Soltani, 2021), natural disasters (Jaume Rossello, Susanne Becken, Maria Santana-Gallego, 2020), information technology (Xiang, From digitization to the age of acceleration: On information technology and tourism, 2018), environmental issues (Nina M. Saviolidis, David Cook, Brynhildur Daviðsdottir, Lara Johannsdottir, Snjolfur Olafsson, 2021), and so on. Therefore, it is natural that conventional statistical tools are not able to analyze to all these complexities (Zhanli Sun, Daniel Muller, 2013).In this paper, "fuzzy logic", "conditional probability" and "diffusion processes on complex networks” are used to model the mentioned "ambiguity", "uncertainty" and "dynamics", respectively. We used fuzzy membership functions for the initial processing of our collected data (Jesus Serrano-Guerrero, Francisco P. Romero, Jose A. Olivas, 2021). We have used Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to estimate the community’s parameters (Rohmer, 2020) in the current situation and opinion dynamics to predict future trends (Raquel Urena, Gang Kou, Yucheng Dong, Francisco Chiclana, Enrique Herrera-Viedma, 2019).We model the current belief of tourism destination stakeholders by using Bayesian belief networks. This is done using structural and parametric training of Bayesian belief networks (Rohmer, Uncertainties in conditional probability tables of discrete Bayesian Belief Networks: A comprehensive review, 2020). The made Bayesian belief network will be able to make prediction, prescription and causal inference about the stakeholders’ variables of the community. (Sucheta Nadkarni, Prakash P Shenoy, 2001). Therefore, various parameters of the community can be estimated by the Bayesian belief network (Gallardo, Measuring vulnerability to multidimensional poverty with Bayesian network classifiers, 2022).The opinion of the stakeholders is dynamic because they are influenced by interactions with their environment and other stakeholders (Nadia Steils, Salwa Hanine, Hanane Rochdane, Siham Hamdani, 2021). The next purpose of our article is to simulate the dynamics. There are many variables in stakeholder interactions are affected over time. Each stakeholder, also called the agent, has an opinion on each of the variables, so in interactions; the stakeholders are influenced by the opinion of others and themselves (Lydia Cape, Francois Retief, Paul Lochner, Thomas Fischer, Alan Bond, 2018).Materials and MethodsAs stated in this research, the primary goal is to create a structure for the beliefs of tourism stakeholders based on the wishes and needs of tourists. Therefore, Bayesian belief networks, which are a kind of causal network based on conditional probability theory, have been used. The next step is to use the dynamics of opinion, which is a subset of agent methods in the field of simulation. We know that agent-based methods are among the recommended methods in the field of tourism, which have been less addressed. The questionnaire data were collected during the years 2019, 2020 and 2021 and are related to 540 beneficiaries in Iran. This collection includes 265 hotels and residences, 170 tourism companies, 85 bus companies, 15 airlines, and 5 railway companies. According to the mentioned society, which consists of 5 classes, the sampling method was done in a stratified manner. Discussion and ResultsBy generating a joint probability distribution function for the variables governing the belief of Iran's tourism stakeholders; we gathered the belief into a coherent mathematical structure. In practice, this equation represented a kind of causal network structure that can answer different questions. With the advantage that it can be retrained and create a more updated distribution function when new data is entered. With the help of the agent-based method of the dynamics of opinions, we were able to simulate the future behavior of tourism beneficiaries. This simulation showed that what behaviors can be useful in attracting tourists, what behaviors are not in the direction of protecting the environment, and what behaviors can be suitable or unsuitable for attracting female tourists.ConclusionsIn order to avoid increasing the complexity of the research process in the simultaneous use of diverse and powerful tools (fuzzy linguistic variables, Bayesian belief networks and opinion dynamics), the work has progressed in such a way that each of the methods is used separately. Therefore, it is possible for researchers to use each of the methods independently. In addition, the obtained useful, diverse and practical results create a suitable motivation for more use of agent- based methods (opinion dynamics) in the development of tourism research.
Machine summary:
برای این منظور از منطق فازی ، شبکه های باور بیزی و مدل های پویایی عقیده استفاده کردیم ؛ که بر روی داده های مربوط به ذینفعان ایرانی باهدف جذب گردشگران چینی پیاده سازی شده است .
Raina MacIntyre) و (فاطمه یاوری گهر، فرشته منصوری موید, ١٣٩٩)) و افزایش تأثیرگذاری فعالان محیط زیست در بیشتر کشورها (٢٠٢١ ,Chien-Chiang Lee, Mei-Ping Chen)، نه تنها در تغییر باور(به معنای پیش شرط های اولیه ) جوامع مقصد نسبت به مسافران چینی نقش داشته بلکه اهمیت تشخیص زودهنگام عقاید (به معنای تکوین نظرات آتی ) آن ها برای اصلاح یا تقویت روندهای موجود افزایش یافته است (٢٠١٥ ,Sekulovic).
معرفی متغیرها و مقادیر آن ها نام متغیر شرح مقادیر M توانایی درک انگیزه توسط ذینفعان Yes, No I١ تصویرسازی از جاذبه ها و فعالیت ها توسط ذینفعان Poor, Average, Good Poor, Average, Good, I٢ تصویرسازی از تسهیلات مقصد توسط ذینفعان Excellent Poor, Average, Good, I٣ تصویرسازی از خدمات مقصد توسط ذینفعان Excellent I٤ تصویرسازی ذینفعان در معرفی جامعه میزبان Poor, Average, Good تصویرسازی ذینفعان از گروه های خاص گردشگری (در این I5 مطالعه زنان ) Yes, No S١ توانایی ذینفعان در ایجاد تجربه اجتماعی Yes, No S٢ توانایی ذینفعان برای ایجاد تجربه فرهنگی Poor, Average, Good S٣ توانایی ذینفعان در ایجاد تجربه محیطی Yes, No O١ توانایی ذینفعان برای دریافت بازخورد از گردشگران Poor, Average, Good O٢ توانایی تعامل ذینفعان با جامعه مقصد Yes, No O٣ توجه ذینفعان به حفاظت از محیط زیست Yes, No پس از ایجاد ساختار گرافیکی شبکه باور بیزی ، می توان آن را به صورت یک توزیع احتمال توأم از همه متغیرهای تصادفی بیان کرد ( .