چکیده:
One of the methods of futurology is scenario writing. In this study, the main factors of the future formation of the standardization system have been identified and analyzed, and the scenarios for the standardization system have been extracted. To this end, based on library studies, a list of the most important factors and variables effective in determining the status of the system was first identified and then, based on expert opinions, the factors that were below the mean scores were eliminated. This way, the selected factors for the next stage of the research on and the designing of the cross-impact questionnaire were extracted. Then, using the questionnaire and applying the cross-impact analysis method using MicMac software, the opinions of the experts were analyzed and 9 factors were identified out of the 24 previously extracted factors as the final key (risk) factors. The results of this section were presented to experts in the form of another questionnaire to determine the uncertainties and significance of each variable. Finally, based on the results and calculations performed on the results of the uncertainty questionnaire, the future scenarios of the standardization system in the field of production technology were identified. According to the results, the two uncertainties of “production policies in order to develop a competitive ground in industries”, and “the possibility of producing modern equipment and machinery” were found to have the highest coefficients and therefore constitute the axes of the scenario of this study.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Finally, based on the calculations performed on the uncertainty questionnaire results, the future scenarios of the standardization system in the field of production technology were identified.
Research Method Step One. Library Studies The first stage in structural analysis, based on the cross-impact method, is to identify and select factors that, as components of the system, determine the state of the system.
List of factors related to standards extracted from literature studies Refer to the page image Cross-Impact Analysis In this stage, a list of 42 factors influencing the research topic was first identified to utilize expert opinion, and in the first step of the research, this list was distributed among 34 experts, and they were asked to express their views on the impact and selection of each factor that could be effective on the future of the Iranian standardization system in the field of production technology, from scores of 1 to 5, and if they believed another factor could be added to the list of factors, they should introduce it.
Average score and priority of factors from the perspective of respondents Refer to the page image The next stage of the research was to design an interaction matrix questionnaire based on the factors selected by experts in the first stage of this step.
Enrichment of each of the aforementioned scenarios is as follows: Scenario One. Providing modern production equipment and machinery and creating a competitive environment in industries by the government This scenario is the most optimistic scenario possible in the future of the Iranian standardization system in the field of production technology.
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